Episode 104
As the tumultuous 12th century drew to a close, just two years away, the inevitable war between the Byzantine Empire and the Khwarazmian Empire was beginning to ripple through neighboring nations.
In Damascus, the capital of the Ayyubid dynasty, Saladin was more vigilant than ever, closely monitoring the tides of change. For the Ayyubids to secure their future, it wasn’t enough for them to grow stronger alone. They needed to solidify their own structure while weakening the surrounding states.
The expulsion of a tyrant in Byzantium and the rise of Khwarazm were not exactly promising signs.
“Wasn’t it the right decision to restrain Khwarazm rather than support them?” asked Al-Adil, Saladin’s younger brother, who had become more cautious after recent experiences. He was compiling reports that flowed in ceaselessly from the north and east.
“Khwarazm’s momentum is rising much faster than we anticipated. If we consider their current territories, population, and national power, we must admit they’ve already surpassed us.”
“You know as well as I do that war isn’t fought with numbers alone.”
“Of course. If it came to actual combat, we wouldn’t lose to the likes of Khwarazm. But the fact remains that, by the numbers, they’ve overtaken us.”
Khwarazm’s influence now stretched beyond Baghdad, reaching Mecca and even further west to the Almohads. Muslims were beginning to see Khwarazm as the leading state of the Islamic world, which was not a pleasant development for the Ayyubids. Al-Adil, who believed the Ayyubid dynasty was the true embodiment of the Islamic empire, found it particularly irksome.
“While it’s good to wait for the right moment, haven’t we just ended up strengthening our opponent? Shouldn’t we intervene now?”
“There’s no need. The faster you eat, the more likely you are to choke.”
“So, is this situation unfolding exactly as you, or rather, the Sultan, planned?”
“It’s unfolding faster than calculated, but it’s still within the realm of our predictions. There’s no need to worry.”
The issues Al-Adil raised had been thoroughly considered long ago. It was a universal truth that a neighboring country’s rise in power was never beneficial. Saladin wasn’t foolish enough to support Khwarazm without understanding this. From the start, he had meticulously examined and analyzed countless possibilities.
“Byzantium has expelled a tyrant and installed a capable emperor. Khwarazm was destined to grow stronger as the surrounding nations declined. This was beyond our control.”
“Still, wasn’t it unnecessary to help them?”
“No. When you can’t stop a tide, the best strategy is to set up safeguards to control it.”
Khwarazm’s ascension as the dominant force in the eastern Islamic world was inevitable. Simply allowing that to happen would be the worst outcome for the Ayyubids. While the Europeans might be reasonable now, who knows if that will be the case in 50 or 100 years? Edward Marshall was a reasonable man, so relations might remain good while he’s alive. But what happens when he and Saladin are gone? It’s almost certain that Europe will once again demand Jerusalem.
The Almohad dynasty, too, seems unlikely to hold onto the Iberian Peninsula in the long run. Eventually, the Ayyubids would have to be the bulwark protecting the Islamic world from Europe.
“No matter how much we strengthen our nation, if we have to fight Europe periodically, the resources will be drained. In the end, we’ll just be sacrificing ourselves to allow other dynasties to grow stronger.”
“That’s true.”
“And if Byzantium regains strength and occupies Anatolia, what then? In the past, when Byzantium and the Catholics were at odds, it was one thing. But now that they’re starting to unite, it could be a significant long-term threat.”
One reason the Crusaders hadn’t been as effective as they hoped was Byzantium’s lukewarm support. If Byzantium had truly united with the Catholic states to reclaim Jerusalem, even Saladin might not have been able to hold it so easily.
Hearing this, Al-Adil finally understood the Sultan’s intentions and nodded slowly.
“So, if we can’t stop the tide, we should accelerate it in our favor and aim for mutual destruction?”
“Exactly. And even if mutual destruction doesn’t occur, it doesn’t matter much. If Khwarazm takes Anatolia, the Christian forces will focus their attention there first.”
“Ah! So Khwarazm becomes the shield against the Christian attacks instead of us.”
“Precisely. Conversely, if Byzantium wins… of course, they couldn’t defeat Khwarazm alone, so they’d have European help.”
“Then Khwarazm would decline, and we’d have to face the Christian forces ourselves.”
That possibility had been considered, but it wasn’t a concern.
“No. Khwarazm’s current strength isn’t such that losing one war would lead to their decline. It might slow their growth and cause some chaos, but in the long run, the conflict between Byzantium and Khwarazm will continue, which isn’t bad for us.”
Of course, if Khwarazm suffered an unimaginable defeat, the situation might change, but the Ayyubids had plenty of room to intervene. They could open a retreat or mediate before the damage became too great, actions that were natural for a neighboring country.
“After hearing your explanation, I understand now. But… isn’t the situation progressing too quickly?”
“Has the timeline moved up even more since the last report?”
“Yes. According to the envoy from Khwarazm, the Mongolian steppes have already been unified by Temujin Khan. They now call themselves the Mongol Empire, and Temujin Khan has taken the title of Genghis Khan.”
“That’s nearly 20 years earlier than expected. But if the timeline has moved up so much, Khwarazm might not be fully prepared to move north yet.”
According to Saladin’s discussions with Tekish, they still needed about one to two more years before starting the war.
“Tekish is pretending to make peace with the Western Xia while preparing to move north. What’s his intention?”
“It’s obvious. The Mongols are stronger than expected, so he’s not willing to lend a hand in attacking the Western Xia. It would make controlling the post-war situation easier.”
“Will the Mongols be so easily deceived?”
“If they are, there are two possibilities: they’re pretending to be deceived, or they’ve truly been fooled.”
Personally, Saladin hoped for the latter. The Mongols’ actual strength far exceeded his previous estimates. If they possessed such power and good judgment, they could become an unforeseen problem.
“Keep in constant contact with Khwarazm and pay attention to the Mongols’ movements.”
“Anticipating your instructions, I’ve already gathered all the information. When Khwarazm said they needed over a year to prepare for war, the Mongols decided to conquer another region and invaded a country called Western Xia.”
“Western Xia?”
“It’s a country located next to the Jin dynasty in the east. It was once prosperous but has recently lost some strength. The Mongols seem to be testing their military capabilities by attacking Western Xia.”
Are they war-hungry beasts? What kind of variables will this belligerence introduce?
In the rapidly changing political landscape, Saladin held onto Al-Adil for a long time, determined not to miss a single detail.
“Given how things have unfolded, it seems war is inevitable.”
After successfully negotiating the details of an agreement, I entered an informal meeting with Alexios III and Lothaire.
“With Tekish’s ambitions laid bare, it’s only a matter of time before he leads his army north. Now that we’ve decided to unite, we must come together with a single purpose.”
“I wholeheartedly agree with the Prophet. If those Islamic forces dare to challenge us, we must seize this opportunity to demonstrate the clear difference in power. We Catholics will do our utmost to support Rome for the glory of Christianity.”
“With both of you so cooperative, I feel much more at ease. If war is unavoidable, we must win. That’s the mindset we need to prepare with.”
Alexios appeared more relaxed than before. Perhaps he saw this war as an opportunity to rebuild Byzantium. There’s no need for an overwhelming victory. Successfully repelling Khwarazm and extracting some reparations would be enough for Byzantium to regain its former prestige.
“Let’s review what we need to do. Your Majesty, please fortify the defenses in Anatolia and monitor the situation with the Western Xia.”
“Western Xia… Indeed, if Khwarazm is openly moving north, it means the east is stable. We must thoroughly investigate the current state of Western Xia.”
“Exactly. Khwarazm hasn’t likely destroyed Western Xia yet, so we should…”
The odds are high that the two have struck some sort of secret pact. If there’s a way to exploit that, we might be able to incite internal conflict. Even if that’s not the case, we could at least force Khwarezm to refocus its attention on the East.”
No matter how powerful an empire is, managing two fronts simultaneously is never an easy task.
Of course, the Mongol Empire at its peak managed to keep Jin in check while attacking Khwarezm, but that was only possible because they were truly extraordinary.
Even the Mongol Empire initially tried to find a compromise with the arrogant Khwarezm, not wanting to expand their front while still engaged with the Jin.
No matter how prematurely Khwarezm might be enjoying its golden age, it likely doesn’t have the strength to handle both the northern and eastern fronts at once.
“And, Your Eminence, as soon as you return to Europe, I hope you’ll meet with the kings of various nations with me. Without their support, the unity of the Crusade is fundamentally impossible.”
“Of course. In fact, that’s something I wanted to ask of you.”
While it’s unlikely that war will break out immediately, we must prepare thoroughly from now on.
This isn’t just a casual outing; it’s a long expedition across the Mediterranean to the Anatolian Peninsula.
With active support from the Byzantine side, the burden should be less than past Crusades, but it still won’t be easy.
“Now that we know what needs to be done, we should prepare to return as quickly as possible. As much as I’d like to stay here a bit longer, every day counts from now on.”
“It can’t be helped. I’d like to see more of you and my daughter, but the situation is what it is.”
“The Prophet is right. As soon as we finish exchanging information, let’s prepare to return to the Vatican.”
Even with the looming threat of a massive war, there wasn’t a hint of anxiety on the faces of Lothaire and Alexios III, fortified by their unwavering faith.
It can’t be helped.
They truly believe this war is a holy crusade with divine support.
This is precisely the time to be cautious and avoid mistakes, which means I’ll likely have to endure a bit more hardship in the middle of it all.