Episode 123
“What do you think is the most crucial element for winning a war?”
Since the outbreak of the war between the Khwarazmian Empire and the Crusaders, the world’s attention had been riveted on the Anatolian Peninsula.
This was a large-scale conflict unlike anything seen before.
The Christian forces included England, France, the Holy Roman Empire, and the Byzantine Empire, with Italy and Hungary also planning to send support. On the Islamic side, the rising power of Khwarazm stood firm, backed by political legitimacy from the Caliph and logistical support from Saladin’s Ayyubid dynasty.
Though the Ayyubids had not yet directly intervened, experts warned that if Khwarazm gained the upper hand, they might join the fray.
The Crusaders were well aware of this and had no intention of relinquishing control of the war. Khwarazm, too, understood this all too well.
“Well, there are so many important factors in war that it’s hard to single out just one,” Timur replied cautiously to Muhammad, the future Sultan of Khwarazm, who was studying a map of Anatolia.
Despite the natural tendency to curry favor with someone promised power, Timur showed no such inclination, which made Muhammad appreciate him even more.
“Feel free to speak your mind. I’m not asking you to rank them, just to hear what you think are the most important factors.”
“First, you’d need skilled soldiers. No matter how favorable the situation, you can’t win if the troops aren’t up to par.”
“True. Without a certain level of training, command becomes impossible.”
“Next, the ability of the commanders leading those soldiers is crucial. History is full of wars that could have been won but were lost due to a commander’s mistakes.”
Indeed, the outcome of a war often hinges on the commander’s abilities. Turning the tide in a seemingly unwinnable war or making blunders in a sure victory both depend on the commander.
Muhammad, who was effectively the supreme commander of Khwarazm, felt the weight of this responsibility on his shoulders. Yet, it didn’t burden him. It was the confidence of someone who had always won.
Moreover, this war was against the infidel Christians, not a fratricidal conflict among fellow Muslims. There was no way they could lose.
While he held this obvious belief, he also resolved to ensure his confidence didn’t dull his judgment.
“Your points are valid, but let’s delve deeper. Among a commander’s abilities, which do you think stands out the most? Naturally, it varies with the situation and the opponent, right?”
“Yes. In the current battlefield, perhaps the flexibility to withstand the Crusaders’ strong offensive while counterattacking would be required.”
Experience and past encounters had shown that it was difficult to hunt those boar-like foes head-on. In other words, rather than a sweeping strategy, a tactic of gradually wearing them down was effective. This was a proven formula.
Muhammad had no intention of denying this.
“While wearing them down is correct in the broad sense, the key is the specific method. I believe our focus should be on dividing the Crusaders.”
“That would be ideal if possible, but is it feasible? I’ve heard the Crusaders are more united than ever.”
“I’m aware. That false apostle has them tightly knit. But is that really the case? On the surface, they may seem united, but nations have different interests and goals.”
Currently, the Crusaders were led by the kings of each nation. Kings, by nature, have sky-high egos and believe they are the best. Not that he saw this as a bad thing; a king should have such spirit.
The problem was that there were not just one or two, but three or four of them together. This inevitably led to issues. Disputes could arise at any time for any reason.
To avoid this, they likely kept a certain distance from each other. Exploiting this could yield significant advantages.
Muhammad pointed to the north of Antioch, where the Crusader main force was stationed.
“If we move our main force near them, they’ll think we’re preparing for battle. In that gap, we’ll secretly maneuver 20,000 troops to the northwest.”
“It’s confirmed that the Crusaders have a fortress in that direction. Is your plan to use the main force as bait to capture the fortress?”
“Exactly.”
“It’s not a bad strategy, but attacking that fortress would require our detachment to advance quite deeply. Is there a reason to take such a risk?”
He understood what Timur was getting at. Even if they captured the fortress, holding it would require immense effort and resources. Its location made it vulnerable to being surrounded by reinforcements from the Byzantine Empire and the Crusader main force.
Timur was tactfully questioning the necessity of attacking that area despite the risks.
“Naturally, what we’re considering, they are too. So, what we overlook, they likely do as well. Frankly, the fortress isn’t of great value as a territory. That’s why the Crusaders have mostly left the wounded and auxiliary forces there.”
“So, you’re saying that capturing the fortress is a given, and our goal is victory in battle, not holding the fortress?”
“Exactly. Our aim is to inflict gradual damage without engaging in full-scale battles.”
As the war dragged on and the damage accumulated, the seemingly solid Crusader alliance would crumble like a sandcastle. While the prolonged war was also a burden for Khwarazm, they were united under the Sultan. Though there were still some internal noises, they were incomparable to the Crusaders with their differing interests.
“I’ll keep harassing them until they collapse from exhaustion.”
Muhammad regretted that he wouldn’t be able to see their faces when they realized they’d been outmaneuvered.
“Report! The enemy’s main force is advancing slowly towards Antioch!”
“Estimated strength is over 60,000!”
“Unexpected. Are they making the first move?”
What’s this? Things are progressing faster than expected. Logically, there’s no reason for them to charge at us now. Did they eat something bad?
Richard, who seemed to share my thoughts, clicked his tongue and scratched his head upon receiving the report.
“Is the information reliable? Could it be a ruse?”
“No, sir.”
“Well, it’s hard to misinterpret the movement of 60,000 troops.”
Voices in the meeting room were already calling for a decisive battle, urging to pierce the Muslim bellies with holy spears.
Heinrich VI, the supreme commander, sensed the mood and spoke with authority.
“It wouldn’t make sense not to respond to their challenge. I believe we need to decisively counterattack. What are your thoughts?”
Philip II nodded without a hint of emotion.
“Do as you see fit.”
Richard and I were also skeptical but didn’t voice any objections. If we avoided the fight, it would inevitably lead to criticism.
Of course, while we should engage if a battle ensues, it’s important to address any concerns.
“We should engage if a battle occurs, but there’s no need to rush into it. The enemy might be setting a trap.”
“The Duke of Brunswick suggested that the enemy might have gained confidence from the previous skirmish. They’re known for their arrogance.”
“Still, I recommend securing the rear thoroughly in case of unforeseen circumstances.”
“Of course. Then, I entrust the defense of the rear to His Majesty Philip II. Will you take charge?”
“Leave it to us. We’ll protect our supply lines with our lives.”
Though he said that, the likelihood of Khwarazm’s forces circling around to attack our supply lines was slim. It was more plausible for the Ayyubids to break the treaty and march north to attack Antioch.
Hmm? On second thought, this possibility should always be considered. While Saladin might not make such a choice, he was getting on in years. Having already surpassed his historical lifespan, the possibility of health issues or senility couldn’t be ruled out.
Even the most rational and logical individuals can deteriorate with age, a phenomenon not only seen in history but also in modern times.
What if the aging Saladin is sidelined and his more aggressive brother suddenly allies with Khwarezm?
If that happens, what should we do… Should we abandon Antioch and retreat to the vicinity of Seleucia?
In that case, maybe it would be better to deal a significant blow to Khwarezm in this battle, so the Ayyubids wouldn’t dare interfere.
But no matter how much I think about it, it doesn’t seem like Khwarezm is willing to risk everything on a direct confrontation right now.
Perplexed, I turned to Richard beside me and showed him the map, asking casually, “What do you think the chances are that they’ll send a detachment to circle north and attack us from behind?”
“Hmm… I don’t see any particularly threatening routes,” he replied.
I agreed. Which made the enemy’s actions all the more baffling.
Could it really be, as Heinrich VI suggested, that they’re underestimating us and planning to crush us head-on out of sheer confidence?
Was Muhammad truly the master of disastrous decisions, as history suggests?
No. We must remain vigilant until the very end.